This is part of a series of blog posts I wrote for a coin collecting site circa ~2015 that seems to have disappeared off the Internet. Note any prices mentioned in this series are from 2015.
It can be tough to know if a new coin is going to perform well or not. It’s an exercise that’s half speculation and half divination. If you had the opportunity to obtain any of the following specimens but decided to pass, be prepared to groan when you see what you missed out on!
* 2012-W Gold Eagle $50 Burnished MS70 ($1880 vs $3800+)
We all know that Gold Eagles return a handsome sum on maturing, but the 2012-W $50 Burnished did especially well. This is due to the extremely low mintage that year; the US Mint announced unexpectedly that they had sold out of the 2012-W Burnished $50 Gold Eagle by November 9th. The final mintage came to 5,829, about two thirds of the mintage for Burnished $50 Gold Eagles the previous year. Literally overnight, prices on this coin doubled, going from $2000 to $3000 on auctions within days of the sellout.
How to spot more of these: Track the sales numbers throughout the year, and follow mint news closely. However, if you’re buying Gold Eagles, it’s not like you’ll skip a year out of fickleness anyway.
* 2014 Baseball Proof Silver Dollar (originally retailed for $48.95, back to earth now, but once trading at $150/coin)
Baseball fans can be a superstitious lot. They’re especially attracted to novelty, and coin collectors also tend to stampede to a novelty piece. So when the US Mint announced the design for the 2014 Silver Dollar Baseball Proof, that it would be the first ever curved coin minted in US Mint history, the market went wild. They started selling at $51.95 in March, then the Mint raised the price to $56.95 by that April. By April 9th, the last spot on the waiting list was filled, and that was that. Every other fan of the coin would just strike out. 262,091 total were minted an distributed; prices on auction ran to the triple digits within months.
How to spot more of these: These kinds of coins are more of a gamble. Plenty of novelty commemorative pieces are produced and sold every year. But the novelty value of this particular piece cannot be overstated; it is not only the curve factor, but the clever design with the glove on the obverse cupped side and a baseball on the reverse. When you see a piece and it has appeal beyond the coin collector’s market (i.e. If the US Mint ever releases a Star Wars commemorative with an embedded neon lightsaber), you’ll know to grab it. On the other hand, extreme novelty pieces tend to be faddish as well.
* 2014 Native American Coin & Currency Set (started $13.95, worth $50+ on popular auction sites)
This goes to show that you don’t have to be a high-stakes investor to cash in on a sweet deal. Normally you wouldn’t expect the “Saccie” (Sacagawea dollar) to stir much excitement, but the buyers of 2014 sets noticed that the specimen included in the set was an enhanced uncirculated one, with a special finish with laser frosting. That little bit of novelty was enough to drive the set from the $13.95 retail price to $20, $30, and even $50 on auction sites after the set sold out.
How to spot more of these: Really, the only way to stay on this curve is to stick to ordering new sets from the Mint, and have a sharp eye for detail. Other related design details are of course the obvious error coins produced over the years (double die, double strikes, missing details, etc.), or when the Mint goes above and beyond the usual proof with a reverse proof or other such fancy polish.
* 2008 Buffalo Gold sets – $1959 to purchase, nearly tripled upon sell out, now selling as high as $13,000+ in 70 sets)
A variety of factors came together to make the 2008 Gold Buffalo Four Coin Set a huge boom. The year 2008 was the onset of the infamous Great Recession in the US and echoing around the world, and demand for precious metals was going through the roof. It was the first time fractional denominations of the Gold Buffalo had been offered by the Mint. The set was given unusually fancy treatment with a hardwood box. And the US Mint announced in late 2008 that they would not be able to continue to produce the sets to meet demand, which of course drove the market into a frenzy. And finally, the Gold Buffalo is 99% pure gold, as opposed to the 91% pure gold of the Gold Eagle. Prices on this set have continued to skyrocket, fueled mostly by its collector’s value alone over the bullion value.
How to spot more of these: Again, novelty value and short supply come together to create unique opportunities. Pay attention to what the Mint offers and be prepared to grab anything unusually unique. Of course, during a financial panic such as 2008, you’re money ahead if you can simply acquire any metal in any form, period.
* 2012 Silver Proof Sets ($45 @ launch, retail for up to $400)
At the beginning of 2012, the spot price of silver had just spiked to a $35 per ounce high, the highest price of the century to date and more than double what it had been just two years previously. And now it was beginning a decreasing trend to the more corrected numbers we see today. In accordance, the demand for silver proof sets had slumped, and the US Mint simply overestimated how much it would slump. Buyers were surprised to see the US Mint announcing the sellout so soon in the year, so they were caught short. The 2012 Silver Proof Set had retailed for $67.95; today it’s auctioning for $400 and up through sheer rarity alone.
How to spot more of these: Rudyard Kipling might advise you to keep your head while all about you are losing theirs. Sometimes it pays off to be just 10% more optimistic than the market. Of course, windfalls like these are simply beyond anyone’s control, due to the unexpected cutoff at the Mint. Had the set not ended up being so rare, it wouldn’t have had such a dramatic price spike.
If you missed the opportunity with any of the above pieces…
Don’t waste time beating yourself up about it. It takes a long time to become a numismatic expert, and then even the experts make mistakes just like the rest of us. Ask any collector – everybody has that story of the time they should have bought… or shouldn’t have. (Anybody want a roll of 1979 Susan B. Anthonys?)
And if you did jump at the right time and acquired one of these windfalls? After the obligatory self-congratulatory laugh, it might be time to sell while the selling’s good, and work on acquiring new pieces with good investment potential. Lightning is more likely to strike twice when there’s metal involved.
